Early reports of the Israeli retaliatory strikes against an Iranian air base and a nuclear site indicate they were not hugely physically damaging.
But they carry a message from Israel that they can get to Iran and also a strong indication of what its priorities are – the military and Iran’s nuclear interests. The single most important thing Israel feels it has to destroy as a priority is Iran’s ability, sometime in the near future, to gain nuclear capability.
For the short term it seems these demonstrative ping-pong strikes between Israel and Iran are some kind of tit-for-tat chess game to muscle flex. But Israel and Iran have been conducting war against each other for years via proxies – Israel assassinating Iran’s nuclear scientists and military leaders, and Iran’s outreach partners Hezbollah, Hamas and others striking Israel.
Israel may well have to try to take out Iran’s nuclear sites some time soon – with a massive, high-risk operation involving bunker busting bombs, cruise missiles and the list goes on. But this latest escalation was not that.
It appears to be another notch up the escalation ladder towards overt war, which neither side wants right now and which the west is lobbying heavily against. Israel has to keep its coalition partners on board, as shown by the stunning defence by its air force, supported by US, UK, Jordanian and Saudi fast jets.
An unwarranted escalation could put that good will at risk but these strikes attract widespread attention, whilst also delivering a major warning to Iran, telling its regime “we will have the last word.” Plus it is at war in Gaza, whilst having to ward of the constant threat from Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
And Iran, whilst needing to placate its Hezbollah and Syrian allies and also show-off military power to the wider Middle East, likely feels it is not ready for all-out war. CONTINUE READING
Leave a Reply